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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Ceará Governor Election Winner

Name: Ceará Governor Election Winner
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$15.45K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Ceará Governor Election Winner

Vol

$15.45K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $15.45K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.45K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Poly	52%
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Poly	26%
Will Roberto Cláudio win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Poly	15%
Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Poly	11%
Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Poly	4%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$15.45K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Ceará Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (87 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $33.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.47)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $709
  DATA: [Yes: 10.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Roberto Cláudio win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $619
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $824
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $10.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $987
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics