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Events
GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?

Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court?
Vol

PM $260.7K · K 18.8K contracts

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Events

2

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Markets

4

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 8% on Polymarket, and the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Before Jan 1, 2028 at 46%.

Polymarket

  1. Yes8%

Kalshi

  1. Before Jan 1, 202846%
  2. Before Jul 1, 202728.5%
  3. Before Jan 1, 20275.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $260.7K · K 18.8K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

4

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2028 If Alexandre de Moraes leaves as Justice of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. Alexandre de Moraes must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure and the natural expiration of a term. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Alexandre de Moraes vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract shall settle on the initial vacation of the role. This market will close and expire early if the specific individual leaves the role as defined in the payout criteria.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiPolitics
Will Brazil's Senate open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes?

Will Brazil's Senate open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes?

K 329.36 contracts
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Brazilian Senate votes to open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes before Mar 1, 2027?Yes 57.5%
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Brazilian Senate votes to open impeachment proceedings against Alexandre de Moraes before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 6.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...?

PM $36.9K
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?Yes 92%
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by October 31?Yes 4%
2 mktsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

K 4.00M contracts
Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 44.5%
Will Pedro Sánchez leave Prime Minister of Spain before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 18.5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 18.5%
+32 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

K 760.3K contracts
Will D. John Sauer become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?Yes 11.5%
Will Ted Cruz become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?Yes 11.1%
Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?Yes 10.5%
+38 moreNext deadline Feb 3, 2029 UTC
KalshiPolitics
How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?

How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?

K 218.6K contracts
Will the next President confirm 0 Supreme Court justices?Yes 42%
Will the next President confirm 1 Supreme Court justices?Yes 25.5%
Will the next President confirm 2 Supreme Court justices?Yes 15.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Jan 20, 2029 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

PM $6.6K
Will James Ho be the next Supreme Court nominee?Yes 20%
Will Amul Thapar be the next Supreme Court nominee?Yes 18%
Will Andrew Oldham be the next Supreme Court nominee?Yes 13%
+8 moreNext deadline Jan 20, 2029 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.