Guam Governor winner?
PM $10.1K · K 32.5K contracts
2
4
Guam Governor winner?
PM $10.1K · K 32.5K contracts
2
4
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Vicente Ada (R) at 67%, and on Kalshi it is Tony Ada at 68.5%.
Polymarket
- Vicente Ada (R)67%
- Therese Terlaje (D)28.6%
Kalshi
- Tony Ada68.5%
- Therese Terlaje26.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $10.1K · K 32.5K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
In 2026 If X wins the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The two platforms list the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election with different contract wording, so their prices answer different questions. Kalshi asks about individual candidates. Its contracts state that "If X wins the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The two saved Kalshi markets name Tony Ada and Therese Terlaje [1].
Polymarket asks about parties. Its contracts "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins" the election, which is "currently scheduled for November 3, 2026" [2]. Its rules say the named nominees "may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders" and may be updated if a nominee is replaced before election day [2]. If results are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, the Polymarket market "will resolve to 'Other'" [2].
Reading the snapshot
The data were observed at 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z and retrieved at 18:08:14 UTC the same day [1][2]. These are saved prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
On Kalshi, the Yes price for Tony Ada is 0.685 and for Therese Terlaje is 0.265 [1]. On Polymarket, the Yes price for a Republican Party candidate winning is 0.67, and for a Democratic Party candidate winning is 0.2865 [2]. These figures belong to different contracts, so they should not be averaged or treated as an arbitrage signal because they differ.
Both platform samples are complete for the saved events. Each Kalshi event has two markets, both included, and each Polymarket event has two, both included [1][2]. The saved events still do not establish that every real-world outcome is listed.
What remains uncertain
The closing times conflict. Kalshi lists an end date of 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z in the market data, but its excerpt says the listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. Polymarket lists 2026-11-03T23:59:00.000Z [2]. Neither end time is an announced result date.
The retrieved evidence does not include results, certification timing, or any reporting on the race. It also does not explain why any price is where it is.
References
- Kalshi: Guam Governor winner?. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z.
- Polymarket: Guam Governor Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia tracks a prediction market titled "Guam Governor winner?", which concerns the 2026 gubernatorial election in Guam. The contract is listed on two platforms. Kalshi's event asks whether a named candidate will win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election, and its rule states that "If X wins the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Polymarket's event is structured by party. It states that the market "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026" [2]. The two platforms use different structures. The Kalshi rules allow accelerated determination after "a consensus of media organizations project the winner," and the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The Polymarket rules say that nominees may be named in the contract for convenience, and that if a named candidate is replaced as a party nominee before election day, the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [2]. Because the wording differs, a reader should check the full rules on each platform before comparing the two contracts. The Polymarket rules also explain how a result is determined. The market resolves "based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting," and in case of ambiguity, on official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the election [2].
Historical Context
A Wikipedia list summarizing female governors in the United States states that, in January 2026, women were serving as territorial governors of Guam and Puerto Rico [3]. That is a statement about a past point in time and does not identify the current Guam governor or the status of the 2026 race. Guam's voting arrangements also differ from those of U.S. states: its citizens may not vote in general elections for president, and Guam is entitled to a non-voting delegate in the U.S. House of Representatives [4].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: which party or candidate wins the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election, as defined by each platform's rules. Kalshi's rule ties resolution to a named candidate winning [1]. Polymarket's rule ties resolution to the party of the winning candidate and sets a fallback: if the results are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other" [2]. The prices shown for these contracts are snapshots of trading activity at a point in time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of an outcome. Differences in price between the two platforms may reflect differences in contract wording, timing, or participation, so a price gap alone does not indicate an opportunity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election scheduled?
The Polymarket rules state that the election is "currently scheduled for November 3, 2026" [2]. This is the date referenced in the contract rules and is not a separate announcement of results or of the market's resolution.
What happens if the election result is not known for a long time?
Under the Polymarket rules, if the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, the market will resolve to "Other" [2].
Can the Kalshi market close before election day?
Yes. The Kalshi rules say the market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner, and that it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
What happens if a named nominee is replaced?
The Polymarket rules say that if a named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their party before election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party [2].
Does a contract price show the probability that a candidate will win?
Not on its own. The prices are snapshots from the platforms at the time they were recorded, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should be read as a record of prices at that moment rather than a confirmed forecast [1][2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
