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Will the US restrict access to Kimi in 2026?

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a binding U.S. federal measure takes effect that generally prohibits or requires federal authorization for private U.S. persons or companies to access, host, or deploy Kimi K3 or a successor Kimi model before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 13.5%

1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC

Illinois Governor election: Darren Bailey vote percent

Will Darren Bailey receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election?Yes 94.5%

Will Darren Bailey receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election?Yes 83.5%

Will Darren Bailey receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election?Yes 65%

+7 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,250,000 and 4,500,000?Yes 40.5%

Illinois Senate Election: Turnout

PM $12.7K

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,000,000 and 4,250,000?Yes 31%

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,500,000 and 4,750,000?Yes 13.5%

TN-01 House election: Diana Harshbarger vote percent

Will Diana Harshbarger receive at least 68% of the popular vote in the 2026 TN-01 House election?Yes 94.5%

Will Diana Harshbarger receive at least 70% of the popular vote in the 2026 TN-01 House election?Yes 84.5%

Will Diana Harshbarger receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 TN-01 House election?Yes 63%

+5 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 325,000 and 350,000?Yes 25.8%

Vermont Governor Election: Turnout

PM $12.7K

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 225,000 and 250,000?Yes 21.9%

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 275,000 and 300,000?Yes 21%

+4 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

Ohio Senate General Election: voter turnout

Will the total vote count for all participants in Ohio Senate General Election be above 3700000?Yes 89.5%

Will the total vote count for all participants in Ohio Senate General Election be above 3900000?Yes 84.5%

Will the total vote count for all participants in Ohio Senate General Election be above 4100000?Yes 74.5%

+9 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

GA-07 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-07 House election by 10%-15%?Yes 25.5%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-07 House election by 5%-10%?Yes 21.5%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-07 House election by 15%-20%?Yes 18%

+6 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

KalshiCrypto

Which cryptocurrencies will the Treasury purchase during Trump's term?

Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Bitcoin for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?Yes 11%

Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Hyperliquid (HYPE) for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?Yes 9.5%

Will the U.S. Department of the Treasury announce its completed purchase of Ethereum for a government-held reserve or stockpile before Jan 21, 2029?Yes 6%

+4 moreNext deadline Jan 21, 2029 UTC

NY-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-06 House election by 25%-30%?Yes 29%

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-06 House election by 20%-25%?Yes 23%

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-06 House election by 30%-35%?Yes 20.7%

Pennsylvania State House winner?

Who will win the Pennsylvania State House election? (Democratic party)Yes 92.5%

Who will win the Pennsylvania State House election? (Republican party)Yes 7.2%

2 mktsNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

NJ-10 House Election Margin of Victory

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election by 60%-65%?Yes 38%

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election by 65%-70%?Yes 29.6%

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-10 House election by 55%-60%?Yes 16%

PA-14 House election: Alan Bradstock vote percent

Will Alan Bradstock receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 PA-14 House election?Yes 95.5%

Will Alan Bradstock receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 PA-14 House election?Yes 90%

Will Alan Bradstock receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 PA-14 House election?Yes 83%

FL-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-05 House election by 10%-15%?Yes 29.5%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-05 House election by 15%-20%?Yes 25.5%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-05 House election by 20%-25%?Yes 21.4%

Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum?

Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum before 2030?Yes 22.5%

1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2030 UTC

Launceston Mayoral Election Winner

Will Matthew Garwood win the next Launceston mayoral election?Yes 60.5%

Will Kyle Barrett win the next Launceston mayoral election?Yes 19%

Will Rose Diamond win the next Launceston mayoral election?Yes 4.7%

+2 moreNext deadline Oct 28, 2026 UTC

Rhode Island's 1st District margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Rhode Island's 1st District House election be at least 23 percentage points?Yes 96%

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Rhode Island's 1st District House election be at least 26 percentage points?Yes 92.8%

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Rhode Island's 1st District House election be at least 29 percentage points?Yes 84.5%

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes 30.1%

Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes 6.3%

2 mktsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

NY-09 House election: Yvette Clarke vote percent

Will Yvette Clarke receive at least 68% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-09 House election?Yes 97%

Will Yvette Clarke receive at least 70% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-09 House election?Yes 95.5%

Will Yvette Clarke receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-09 House election?Yes 88%

How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?

Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes 63.5%

Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes 31.5%

Will Democrats win 3 or more House seats in South Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Yes 5.9%

+1 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

Will the U.S. commit $15 billion to Sunnyside Yard?

Will the U.S. federal government announce commitments totaling at least $15 billion in federal financial assistance toward construction of the Sunnyside Yard deck in New York City before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 16.5%

2 mktsNext deadline Jul 8, 2027 UTC

Next Mayor of Hradec Králové

Will Pavlína Springerová be the next Mayor of Hradec Králové?Yes 93.5%

Will Lukáš Fiedler be the next Mayor of Hradec Králové?Yes 3.6%

Will Martin Soukup be the next Mayor of Hradec Králové?Yes 3.5%

+4 moreNext deadline Jun 30, 2027 UTC

Dane County, Wisconsin: David Crowley vote percent

Will David Crowley receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Dane County, Wisconsin?Yes 97%

Will David Crowley receive at least 74% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Dane County, Wisconsin?Yes 96%

Will David Crowley receive at least 76% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Dane County, Wisconsin?Yes 80.5%

+9 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

Anwar Ibrahim out as Prime Minister of Malaysia by...?

Will Anwar Ibrahim cease to be Prime Minister of Malaysia by December 31, 2026?Yes 6%

1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Spanish general election: margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 3% and 6%?Yes 24.5%

Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 6% and 9%?Yes 22.5%

Will the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election be between 0% and 3%?Yes 14.5%

+4 moreNext deadline Nov 29, 2027 UTC

FL-15 House Election Margin of Victory

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-15 House election by 15%-20%?Yes 33.5%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-15 House election by 10%-15%?Yes 32%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-15 House election by 5%-10%?Yes 23.5%

Alabama Governor election: Tommy Tuberville vote percent

Will Tommy Tuberville receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election?Yes 96.5%

Will Tommy Tuberville receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election?Yes 89.5%

Will Tommy Tuberville receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election?Yes 77.5%

+7 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...?

France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Yes 5.1%

France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Yes 1.6%

2 mktsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC

Rhode Island 02 House General Election: voter turnout

Will the total vote count for all participants in Rhode Island 02 House General Election be above 191000?Yes 90%

Will the total vote count for all participants in Rhode Island 02 House General Election be above 200000?Yes 51.5%

Will the total vote count for all participants in Rhode Island 02 House General Election be above 210000?Yes 38.5%

+5 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

Central Coast Mayoral Election Winner

Will Cheryl Fuller win the next Central Coast mayoral election?Yes 83%

Will Garry Carpenter win the next Central Coast mayoral election?Yes 1.8%

2 mktsNext deadline Oct 28, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiPolitics

British Columbia general election: 2nd place

PM $12.4K · K 20.4K contracts

Will NDP win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?

Kalshi: Will BC NDP finish 2nd in the 2026 British Columbia general election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 77.5%Rules differK Yes 73%

Will Conservative win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?

Kalshi: Will BC Conservatives finish 2nd in the 2026 British Columbia general election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 18.5%Rules differK Yes 21%

Will OneBC win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?

Kalshi: Will OneBC finish 2nd in the 2026 British Columbia general election?

Related contracts

PM Yes 0.5%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

5 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 24, 2026 UTC

Florida Governor election: David Jolly vote percent

Will David Jolly receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election?Yes 97.5%

Will David Jolly receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election?Yes 97.5%

Will David Jolly receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election?Yes 96%

+7 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

Maine's 2nd District margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Maine's 2nd District House election be at least 3 percentage points?Yes 26%

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Maine's 2nd District House election be at least 6 percentage points?Yes 15.5%

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Maine's 2nd District House election be at least 9 percentage points?Yes 7.8%

+1 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-05 House election by 5%-10%?Yes 26%

AZ-05 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $12.4K

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-05 House election by 10%-15%?Yes 25%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-05 House election by 15%-20%?Yes 18%

Pennsylvania's 1st District margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Pennsylvania's 1st District House election be at least 1 percentage points?Yes 35.5%

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Pennsylvania's 1st District House election be at least 4 percentage points?Yes 23.5%

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Pennsylvania's 1st District House election be at least 7 percentage points?Yes 11.2%

+1 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

Will the Republican Party win the NC-10 House seat?Yes 94.8%

NC-10 House Election Winner

PM $12.4K

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-10 House seat?Yes 5.1%

2 mktsNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

KalshiElections

Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?

Will Question 1 pass?Yes 90.5%

Will Question 4 pass?Yes 89.5%

Will Question 6 pass?Yes 86.5%

+6 moreNext deadline Nov 10, 2027 UTC

FL-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-07 House election by 0%-3%?Yes 34.6%

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-07 House election by 3%-6%?Yes 18.2%

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-07 House election by 0%-3%?Yes 15.6%

MO-05 House election: Emanuel Cleaver vote percent

Will Emanuel Cleaver receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 MO-05 House election?Yes 98%

Will Emanuel Cleaver receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 MO-05 House election?Yes 98%

Will Emanuel Cleaver receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 MO-05 House election?Yes 98%

+13 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2027 UTC

Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner

Will Wang Chung-ming win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?Yes 76%

Will Tsao Erh-yuan win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?Yes 24.4%

Will Tsao Erh-chang win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?Yes <0.1%

3 mktsNext deadline Nov 29, 2026 UTC

TX-37 House election: Greg Casar vote percent

Will Greg Casar receive at least 74% of the popular vote in the 2026 TX-37 House election?Yes 93%

Will Greg Casar receive at least 76% of the popular vote in the 2026 TX-37 House election?Yes 88%

Will Greg Casar receive at least 78% of the popular vote in the 2026 TX-37 House election?Yes 80%

NC-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 40%-45%?Yes 22.8%

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 35%-40%?Yes 20.5%

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 45%-50%?Yes 16.5%

MN-05 House election: Ilhan Omar vote percent

Will Ilhan Omar receive at least 70% of the popular vote in the 2026 MN-05 House election?Yes 96.5%

Will Ilhan Omar receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 MN-05 House election?Yes 96%

Will Ilhan Omar receive at least 74% of the popular vote in the 2026 MN-05 House election?Yes 94%

Texas Senate Election: Fort Bend County Winner