Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Santa Fe Governor winner?

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Santa Fe Governor winner?

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Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	65%
Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	17%
Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes La Libertad Avanza but not the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	14%

AI Analysis

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65%

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$0.00

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About This Event

in 2027 If the candidate of the registered alliance that includes X wins the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. An alliance registered with the Tribunal Electoral of the Province of Santa Fe for the 2027 provincial elections counts, and a party running alone is an alliance of one. Alliance membership is fixed at registration; later changes do not move

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Santa Fe Governor winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If the candidate of the registered alliance that includes X wins the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. An alliance registered with the Tribunal Electoral of the Province of Santa Fe for the 2027 provincial elections counts, and a party running alone is an alliance of one. Alliance membership is fixed at registration; later changes do not move

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical wins the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

An allian"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 65.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes La Libertad Avanza but not the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 12, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Santa Fe Governor winner?

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KALSHI

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

If the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical wins the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. An allian

KALSHI

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.0¢No 83.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

If the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista wins the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details. An allia

KALSHI

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes La Libertad Avanza but not the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes La Libertad Avanza but not the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

If the candidate of the registered alliance that includes La Libertad Avanza but not the Unión Cívica Radical wins the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full ru

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Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Santa Fe Governor winner?

Markets (3)

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes La Libertad Avanza but not the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes La Libertad Avanza but not the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

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Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Santa Fe Governor winner?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes La Libertad Avanza but not the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

Will the candidate of the registered alliance that includes La Libertad Avanza but not the Unión Cívica Radical win the 2027 Santa Fe gubernatorial election?

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