Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Nuevo León Governor winner?

Total Volume

$13.65K

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Nuevo León Governor winner?

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$13.65K

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markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $13.65K

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Volume DistributionTotal: $13.65K

100%

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24 markets tracked

Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

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Single-Platform Markets(24)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	22%
Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	22%
Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	15%
Will Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	12%
Will Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Raúl Lozano Caballero win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Martha Herrera González win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Jesús Alberto Elizondo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Judith Díaz Delgado win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Héctor García García win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Fernando Jesús Margáin Sada win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Félix Arratia Cruz win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will David de la Peña Marroquín win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will César Garza Arredondo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Carlos de la Fuente Flores win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Waldo Fernández González win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Miguel Flores Serna win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Ivonne Liliana Álvarez García win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Arturo Salinas Garza win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Andrés Mijes Llovera win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Annia Gómez Cárdenas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Daniel Carrillo Martínez win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

22%

Top Probability

$13.65K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

in 2027 If X wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Nuevo León Governor winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If X wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Waldo Fernández González wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Waldo Fernández González win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Raúl Lozano Caballero win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $448
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Martha Herrera González win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Miguel Flores Serna win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $282
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jesús Alberto Elizondo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Judith Díaz Delgado win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Ivonne Liliana Álvarez García win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Héctor García García win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Fernando Jesús Margáin Sada win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Félix Arratia Cruz win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $550
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will David de la Peña Marroquín win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Daniel Carrillo Martínez win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $539
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will César Garza Arredondo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Carlos de la Fuente Flores win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Arturo Salinas Garza win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Andrés Mijes Llovera win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $675
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Annia Gómez Cárdenas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jun 6, 2028): Vol $312
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Nuevo León Governor winner?

Volume$13.65K

Markets24

24 of 24

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KALSHI

Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

If Mariana Rodríguez Cantú wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

If Adrián de la Garza Santos wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

If Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

If Clara Luz Flores Carrales wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

If Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

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Nuevo León Governor winner?

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Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

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Events (1)

Nuevo León Governor winner?

Markets (24)

Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

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Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Nuevo León Governor winner?

Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

Will Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election?

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