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Showing 145-192 of 272 event groups
Ranked within each platform by reported lifetime volume. Polymarket reports dollars; Kalshi reports contracts.
KalshiTech
DeepSeek share of requests on Oct 18, 2026 (Vercel)
K 13.5K contractsDeepSeek Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 11.4%Yes 91.5%
DeepSeek Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 15.0%Yes 82.5%
DeepSeek Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 12.3%Yes 71.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
KalshiEconomics
Will New Jersey pharmaceutical manufacturing jobs rise YoY?
K 12.8K contractsWill New Jersey’s annual-average employment in Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing for 2026 be above 30,300 jobs?Yes 8.5%
1 mktNext deadline May 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiHealth
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?
K 12.8K contractsWill there be a case of polio in the USA this year?Yes 12%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 31, 2027 UTC
KalshiHealth
Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD?
K 12.1K contractsWill the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031?Yes 54.5%
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032?Yes 51.5%
Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030?Yes 47.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiHealth
Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average?
K 11.8K contractsWill NYC subway ridership reach 90% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 48.5%
Will NYC subway ridership reach 100% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 4%
2 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiCrypto
OpenRouter AI token usage in October
K 11.6K contractsWill OpenRouter AI token usage for October 2026 (Sep 28–Oct 25) be above 500T tokens?Yes 99.5%
Will OpenRouter AI token usage for October 2026 (Sep 28–Oct 25) be above 450T tokens?Yes 99%
Will OpenRouter AI token usage for October 2026 (Sep 28–Oct 25) be above 550T tokens?Yes 98.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Nov 2, 2026 UTC
KalshiSports
Meta vs OpenAI: Highest Arena Score at the end of 2026
K 10.8K contractsWill Meta have a higher Arena Score than OpenAI at the end of 2026?Yes 87%
Will OpenAI have a higher Arena Score than Meta at the end of 2026?Yes 11.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiEconomics
Will North Carolina pharmaceutical manufacturing jobs rise YoY?
K 10.8K contractsWill North Carolina’s employment in Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing for December 2026 be above 26,500 jobs?Yes 40.5%
1 mktNext deadline Apr 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?
K 10.6K contractsWill the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?Yes 52.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2030 UTC
KalshiHealth
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033?
K 10.6K contractsWill the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 Diabetes before 2033?Yes 39.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2033 UTC
KalshiHealth
Hims subscribers in Q3
K 10.4K contractsWill Hims & Hers Health, Inc. report Above 2.95 million subscribers in Q3 2026?Yes 92.5%
Will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. report Above 3 million subscribers in Q3 2026?Yes 79%
Will Hims & Hers Health, Inc. report Above 3.05 million subscribers in Q3 2026?Yes 49%
+4 moreNext deadline Mar 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiWorld
How many mpox clade Ib cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
K 9.8K contractsAbove 10 mpox clade Ib cases in the United States during 2026Yes 83%
Above 15 mpox clade Ib cases in the United States during 2026Yes 70%
Above 20 mpox clade Ib cases in the United States during 2026Yes 42%
+4 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiEconomics
Will Massachusetts scientific R&D jobs rise YoY?
K 9.7K contractsWill Massachusetts’s annual-average employment in Scientific Research and Development Services for 2026 be above 103,400 jobs?Yes 61.5%
1 mktNext deadline May 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?
K 9.6K contractsWill Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Dec 31, 2027?Yes 89.5%
Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Sep 30, 2027?Yes 80.5%
Will Anthropic release Claude 6+ (any family) before Jun 30, 2027?Yes 64%
+2 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
Price of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute by Dec 31, 2026?
K 9.6K contractsWill the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.61 by Dec 31?Yes 52%
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.46 by Dec 31?Yes 45.5%
Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.76 by Dec 31?Yes 12.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiHealth
Which vaccines will the CDC no longer recommend in 2026?
K 9.5K contractsWill the CDC end its recommendation for the COVID-19 vaccine?Yes 13.5%
Will the CDC end its recommendation for the Influenza vaccine?Yes 9%
Will the CDC end its recommendation for the Hepatitis B vaccine?Yes 5.6%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiHealth
When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
K 9.3K contractsWhen will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA? (before April 2027)Yes 83%
When will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA? (before 2027)Yes 71.5%
When will COMPASS Pathways plc submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin to the FDA? (before December)Yes 57.5%
+1 moreNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
Price of NVIDIA H100 SXM compute by Dec 31, 2026?
K 9.2K contractsWill the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.68 by Dec 31?Yes 49.5%
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.38 by Dec 31?Yes 48.5%
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.23 by Dec 31?Yes 45%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiFinancials
FDA decision: Ivonescimab by Summit Therapeutics (in 2026)
K 9.2K contractsWhat will the FDA's decision be on Ivonescimab by Summit Therapeutics in 2026?Yes 47.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
Big Ten: Rushing Yards Leader
K 9.1K contractsCam Edwards records the most rushing yards in the Big TenYes 48.5%
Wayne Knight records the most rushing yards in the Big TenYes 34%
Jordan Marshall records the most rushing yards in the Big TenYes 32%
+47 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?
K 9.1K contractsWhich AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (OpenAI)Yes 82%
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Anthropic)Yes 80%
Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? (Xiaomi)Yes 57%
+15 moreNext deadline Jan 31, 2027 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
Will OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
K 9.1K contractsWill OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?Yes 53%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC
KalshiTech
OpenAI share of spend on Oct 18, 2026 (Vercel)
K 8.5K contractsOpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 20.4%Yes 48.5%
OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 18.9%Yes 48%
OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 21.5%Yes 47%
+6 moreNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Top coding AI this month (Arena.ai)
K 8.4K contractsTop coding AI on October 31, 2026 (Arena.ai)? (Claude)Yes 54%
Top coding AI on October 31, 2026 (Arena.ai)? (ChatGPT)Yes 13%
Top coding AI on October 31, 2026 (Arena.ai)? (Gemini)Yes 2.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiHealth
When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
K 8.0K contractsWhen will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA? (before April 2027)Yes 72%
When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA? (before 2027)Yes 51.5%
When will Beam Therapeutics Inc. submit a BLA for Ristoglogene autogetemcel (risto-cel) to the FDA? (before December)Yes 34.5%
+1 moreNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
Number of data centers in California this year?
K 7.9K contractsWill California have at least 300 data centers this year?Yes 84%
Will California have at least 305 data centers this year?Yes 68%
Will California have at least 315 data centers this year?Yes 39.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
When will OpenAI release GPT-7?
K 7.7K contractsWill OpenAI release GPT-7 before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 82.5%
Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Sep 1, 2027?Yes 58.5%
Will OpenAI release GPT-7 before Jun 1, 2027?Yes 33.5%
+1 moreNext deadline Mar 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
OpenAI share of requests on Oct 18, 2026 (Vercel)
K 7.3K contractsOpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 18.6%Yes 63.5%
OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 26.8%Yes 49%
OpenAI Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 26.0%Yes 49%
+6 moreNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
KalshiWorld
How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
K 7.2K contractsAbove 0 human H5N1 cases in the United States during 2026Yes 69%
Above 1 human H5N1 cases in the United States during 2026Yes 53.5%
Above 2 human H5N1 cases in the United States during 2026Yes 43.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiEntertainment
Who will perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?
K 7.0K contractsWill Drake perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?Yes 49.5%
Will Fred again.. perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?Yes 49%
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at Madison Square Garden 2027?Yes 44.5%
+12 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2028 UTC
KalshiSports
Columbus vs Minnesota: Assists
K 6.9K contractsQuinn Hughes: 1+ assistsYes 67%
Zach Werenski: 1+ assistsYes 49.5%
Kirill Kaprizov: 1+ assistsYes 48%
+30 moreNext deadline Oct 20, 2026 UTC
KalshiScience
Forever: First Week Album Equivalent Units
K 6.7K contractsWill Forever by The Big Moon have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?Yes 35.5%
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?Yes 12.5%
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 7000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?Yes 6.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 12, 2026 UTC
KalshiWorld
Columbus vs Minnesota: Goals
K 6.6K contractsKirill Kaprizov: 1+ goalsYes 47%
Matt Boldy: 1+ goalsYes 40.5%
Joel Eriksson Ek: 1+ goalsYes 31%
+57 moreNext deadline Oct 20, 2026 UTC
KalshiHealth
When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
K 6.6K contractsWhen will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema? (Before 2028)Yes 90.5%
When will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema? (Before October 2027)Yes 89%
When will the FDA approve Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) for Hereditary Angioedema? (Before July 2027)Yes 88.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Jul 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiScience
Forever: First Week Streams
K 6.5K contractsWill Forever by The Big Moon have above 50000 streams during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?Yes 48%
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 100000 streams during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?Yes 32.5%
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 250000 streams during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?Yes 27%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 12, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Google share of requests on Oct 18, 2026 (Vercel)
K 6.2K contractsGoogle Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 11.9%Yes 76.5%
Google Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 13.0%Yes 62%
Google Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 12.9%Yes 59.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
K 5.9K contractsWill it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2030?Yes 66.5%
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2029?Yes 61%
Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?Yes 40%
+1 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
Dallas vs Green Bay: Fantasy Points
K 5.8K contractsGeorge Pickens: Over 13.6 fantasy pointsYes 50.5%
MarShawn Lloyd: Over 12.2 fantasy pointsYes 48%
Brandon Aubrey: Over 8.8 fantasy pointsYes 47.5%
+12 moreNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
How many locally acquired dengue cases will be reported in Florida in 2026?
K 5.3K contracts250 or more locally acquired dengue cases in Florida during 2026Yes 97%
500 or more locally acquired dengue cases in Florida during 2026Yes 72.5%
750 or more locally acquired dengue cases in Florida during 2026Yes 19.5%
+1 moreNext deadline Jan 31, 2027 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
Near room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
K 5.2K contractsWill near room-temp Meissner effect be reported by a major peer-reviewed journal?Yes 2.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 2, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
When will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index?
K 5.1K contractsAA Intelligence Index above 65 before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 80.5%
AA Intelligence Index above 65 before Apr 1, 2027?Yes 72.5%
AA Intelligence Index above 65 before Feb 1, 2027?Yes 65.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Dec 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiWorld
Lollapalooza Chicago 2027: Who will perform
K 5.1K contractsWill Billie Eilish perform at Lollapalooza Chicago 2027?Yes 75.5%
Will Ella Langley perform at Lollapalooza Chicago 2027?Yes 48%
Will KATSEYE perform at Lollapalooza Chicago 2027?Yes 41%
+130 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2028 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?
K 4.8K contractsWill the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved before 2040?Yes 71%
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved before 2035?Yes 60%
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved before 2030?Yes 42%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
KalshiHealth
Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
K 4.6K contractsWill the FDA approve CagriSema before Jul 1, 2027?Yes 95%
Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 92%
Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 70.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
How many launches will Rocket Lab have before 2027?
K 4.5K contractsHow many launches will Rocket Lab Corporation have after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 2027? (Above 6)Yes 98.5%
How many launches will Rocket Lab Corporation have after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 2027? (Above 7)Yes 96.5%
How many launches will Rocket Lab Corporation have after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 2027? (Above 8)Yes 91%
+5 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiFinancials
FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
K 4.2K contractsWhat will the FDA's decision be on Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline in 2026?Yes 95%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
KalshiSports
Dallas vs Green Bay: Player Longest Reception
K 4.1K contractsGeorge Pickens: longest reception over 23.5 yardsYes 53.5%
Matthew Golden: longest reception over 24.5 yardsYes 52%
MarShawn Lloyd: longest reception over 7.5 yardsYes 50.5%
+8 moreNext deadline Oct 21, 2026 UTC
KalshiFinancials
FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (in 2026)
K 3.7K contractsWhat will the FDA's decision be on Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences in 2026?Yes 92.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC