This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Most Traded

10%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

$45.54M volume

Largest Company end of 2025?

This is a market on predicting which company will be the largest by market capitalization on December 31, 2025.

Most Traded(18 markets)

Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

What price will Ethereum hit in 2025?

This is a market group over what prices Ethereum will hit in 2025.

Most Traded(18 markets)

Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?

Maduro out by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Most Traded(3 markets)

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2025?

This is a market group over which movie will make the most money over its opening weekend in 2025.

Most Traded(25 markets)

50%

Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?

$6.63M volume

LiquidityHIGH

Health Score95/100

Leading Outcome100.0%

Which company has best AI model end of 2025?

qqThis is a negrisk market group over which will be the top AI model on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Most Traded(17 markets)

Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?

$3.26M volume

LiquidityHIGH

Health Score95/100

Leading Outcome100.0%

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($2500-3200)

This is a market group over gold prices at the end of 2025.

Most Traded(9 markets)

Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025?

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 1, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Most Traded

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

Next US Presidential Election Winner?

In 2028

Most Traded(21 markets)

22%

Who will win the next presidential election?

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Most Traded(3 markets)

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?

US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Dogecoin in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the US government confiscating Dogecoin does not count as holding Dogecoin reserves. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Most Traded

US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?

UK election called by...?

This is a market on predicting the date when the UK general election will be officially called.

Most Traded(4 markets)

50%

Will the next UK election be called by March 31?

$577.43K volume

LiquidityMEDIUM

Health Score80/100

Leading Outcome100.0%

US national Solana reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Solana in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the US government confiscating Solana does not count as holding Solana reserves. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Most Traded

US national Solana reserve in 2025?

Ryan Reynolds & Blake Lively divorce in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ryan Reynolds and/or Blake Lively announce their intention to divorce between January 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by December 31, 2025 of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Ryan Reynolds and/or Blake Lively, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Most Traded

Ryan Reynolds & Blake Lively divorce in 2025?

China x Philippines military clash by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between January 29, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Most Traded(2 markets)

China x Philippines military clash by December 31?

Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?

During Trump's term

Most Traded

27%

Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before 2029?

Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500.

Most Traded

Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?

Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Most Traded

Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?

What will the price of GTA VI be on PS5?

GTA VI

Most Traded(5 markets)

73%

What will the price of GTA VI be?

Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025?

On November 18, Texas Representative Giovanni Capriglione introduced H.B. 1598, a bill to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve within the state treasury (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/texas-house-introduces-bill-to-establish-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve.html). This market will resolve to "Yes" if H.B. 1598, the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be official information from the Texas Legislature or a consensus of credible reporting.

Most Traded

Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025?

Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

Before 2029

Most Traded

11%

Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029

Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if social media personality and former professional kickboxer Andrew Tate is found guilty in any jurisdiction of any country of any charge related to sex/human trafficking between January 1 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Most Traded

Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2025?

Which party will win the 2028 Presidential Election?

In 2028

Most Traded(2 markets)

46%

Will Republican win the Presidency in 2028?

Who will be the next James Bond?

Before 2030

Most Traded(22 markets)

11%

Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

By January 20, 2029

Most Traded(34 markets)

11%

Will Amul Tharpar become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?

Will Trump resign during his term?

Before his term ends

Most Traded

17%

Will President Trump resign before his term is up?

Is John McAfee alive?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that former presidential candidate John McAfee is still alive between January 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Most Traded

Is John McAfee alive?

Will there be a Trump economic boom?

During the Trump Presidency

Most Traded

64%

Will quarterly GDP be above 5% in any quarter in Q1 2025 to Q4 2028?

When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire?

Trillionaire

Most Traded(5 markets)

Will Elon Musk be a trillionaire before 2026?

U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Most Traded

U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

Before 2030

Most Traded(18 markets)

19%

Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?

Who will win the House, Senate, and Presidency in 2028?

In 2029

Most Traded(8 markets)

24%

Will the Republican party win the House, the Republican party win the Senate, and the Republican party win the Presidency?

Assad leaves Russia before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Bashar al-Assad has left Russia for any length of time between January 2, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Assad may have exited Russian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Russia for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Assad exits Russia maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Assad left Russia, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Most Traded

Assad leaves Russia before 2026?

How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?

Before 2029

Most Traded(5 markets)

28%

Will government spending decrease by 250 before 2028?

Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration

Before 2029

Most Traded(3 markets)

96%

Will the national debt hit $40 trillion during the Trump Administration?

Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is no longer serving as Governor of California for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Gavin Newsom's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Most Traded

Gavin Newsom out as California Governor in 2025?

KALSHIScience and Technology

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Before 2031

Most Traded(5 markets)

38%

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

Who will be the world's first trillionaire?

Before Jan 1, 2030

Most Traded(11 markets)

54%

Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?

Courts consider Apple a monopoly?

Before 2030

Most Traded

59%

DOJ wins their anti-trust case against Apple?

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Most Traded

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

KALSHIClimate and Weather