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Showing 241-288 of 1,185 event groups
Ranked within each platform by reported lifetime volume. Polymarket reports dollars; Kalshi reports contracts.
KalshiScience and Technology
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
K 61.6K contractsWill a court find that OpenAI has infringed the copyright of the New York Times?Yes 58.6%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC
PolymarketTech
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
PM $65.9KWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Yes 73.5%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Yes 25.6%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Yes 0.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiSports
Pro Basketball Players Traded
K 61.1K contractsWill Zach LaVine be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?Yes 52.5%
Will Michael Porter Jr. be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?Yes 52.5%
Will Zion Williamson be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027?Yes 50.5%
+43 moreNext deadline Feb 19, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
PM $65.7KWill Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?Yes 12.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
SpaceX Starship 15th launch?
K 60.5K contractsWill SpaceX launch another Starship before Dec 11, 2026?Yes 90.5%
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 27, 2026?Yes 75%
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Nov 13, 2026?Yes 17%
+1 moreNext deadline Nov 6, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PM $65.4KWill OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 67.5%
Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 20.3%
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 5.5%
+15 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?
K 60.4K contracts1 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026Yes 8%
5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026Yes 4.5%
2 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026Yes 3.5%
3 mktsNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Third-best AI Lab end of October?
PM $64.8KWill Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 91.5%
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 5%
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 2.2%
+18 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiEntertainment
Time's Person of the Decade
K 60.4K contractsWho will Time name as Person of the Decade? (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)Yes 39%
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade? (Elon Musk)Yes 29%
Who will Time name as Person of the Decade? (Taylor Swift)Yes 18%
+3 moreNext deadline Jan 31, 2030 UTC
PolymarketTech
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PM $63.6KUS x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?Yes 6.2%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026?
K 59.9K contractsAI regulation by 2027?Yes 6%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
AI data center in space by...?
PM $63.2KAI data center in space by December 31, 2027?Yes 24.5%
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?Yes 2.1%
2 mktsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Amazon Credit Card Spend in October
K 59.6K contractsWill Amazon Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 94 ?Yes 97.5%
Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 103 ?Yes 74.5%
Will Amazon Credit Card Spend for October 2026 be above 106 ?Yes 69.5%
+9 moreNext deadline Nov 14, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
PM $62.1KWill Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 53.5%
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 27%
Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 18.5%
+18 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
K 58.6K contractsWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 61%
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 21.5%
2 mktsNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?
PM $61.5KWill AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Yes 23.5%
Will AI determine the Ramsey number R(5,5) in 2026?Yes 18%
Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?Yes 14.5%
+11 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
K 57.1K contractsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?Yes 51.6%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2035 UTC
PolymarketScience
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PM $60.3KWill there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Yes 75.8%
Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Yes 20%
Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Yes 3.7%
+1 moreNext deadline Mar 31, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/12 - 10/18)
K 56.8K contractsWill October 13 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/12 - 10/18)?Yes 28.5%
Will October 16 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/12 - 10/18)?Yes 23.5%
Will October 14 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/12 - 10/18)?Yes 17.5%
+4 moreNext deadline Jan 18, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
PM $60.0KWill any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Yes 30.3%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan?
K 56.7K contractsWill Xi Jinping visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?Yes 21.5%
Will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029?Yes 14.5%
Will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?Yes 6.6%
+1 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?
PM $59.2KWill the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?Yes 82.7%
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?Yes 16.6%
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026?Yes 0.8%
+3 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
K 55.7K contractsWill Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Apr 2027?Yes 68%
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Mar 2027?Yes 43%
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Feb 2027?Yes 31.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
OpenAI resumes training on...?
PM $58.9KWill OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?Yes 86%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 20, 2026?Yes 5.9%
Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 18, 2026?Yes 4%
+1 moreNext deadline Oct 19, 2026 UTC
KalshiCompanies
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
K 54.6K contractsManned Starship mission to Mars before 2030?Yes 15.5%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 1, 2030 UTC
PolymarketTech
GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?
PM $58.8KWill the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Yes 69.8%
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Yes 18.5%
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026?Yes 12%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?
K 54.6K contractsWill Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?Yes 3.4%
1 mktNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?
PM $56.3KWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Yes 54%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Yes 37%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Yes 0.3%
+6 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2028 UTC
KalshiTech
Next Gemini Pro model release
K 54.3K contractsWill Google release next Gemini Pro model before Dec 1, 2026?Yes 20%
Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Nov 16, 2026?Yes 15.5%
Will Google release next Gemini Pro model before Nov 1, 2026?Yes 6%
3 mktsNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
PM $55.4KWill there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?Yes 94.5%
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 19, 2026?Yes 1.6%
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 20, 2026?Yes 1.4%
+12 moreNext deadline Oct 18, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
NVIDIA RTX 5090 · Average hourly price in December
K 53.7K contractsWill the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.25 in December 2026?Yes 97.5%
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.50 in December 2026?Yes 88.5%
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's RTX 5090 be above $0.75 in December 2026?Yes 35%
+5 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
PM $54.5KWill Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Yes 41%
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Yes 22%
Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Yes 20.2%
+8 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiSports
Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
K 53.4K contractsWill any LLM score at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?Yes 98.5%
Will any LLM score at least 55% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?Yes 98%
Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?Yes 45.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?
PM $52.5KWill Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Yes 79.5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Yes 15.5%
Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Yes 4%
+18 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiWorld
Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026: Runway Models
K 53.0K contractsWill Joan Smalls be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?Yes 99.5%
Will Ashley Graham be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?Yes 97%
Will Adriana Lima be an official runway model at Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?Yes 95%
+34 moreNext deadline Jan 7, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?
PM $51.6KWill the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?Yes 57.5%
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?Yes 34.5%
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.25 and $1.50 on October 31, 2026?Yes 4.2%
+3 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
What will Katie Zacharia say during Saturday in America?
K 52.8K contractsWhat will Katie Zacharia say during Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for October 17, 2026? (Event does not qualify)Yes 99.5%
What will Katie Zacharia say during Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for October 17, 2026? (Trump (3+ times))Yes 0.5%
What will Katie Zacharia say during Fox News: Saturday in America originally scheduled for October 17, 2026? (Tariff)Yes 0.5%
+17 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
2nd richest person on December 31?
PM $48.3KWill Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31?Yes 58.5%
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31?Yes 36.9%
Will Michael Dell be 2nd richest person on December 31?Yes 26.5%
+8 moreNext deadline Jan 3, 2027 UTC
KalshiTech
How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027?
K 51.5K contractsHow much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027? (Above 15 inches)Yes 89.5%
How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027? (Above 10 inches)Yes 87%
How much will it rain in Napa in November 2026 through March 2027? (Above 25 inches)Yes 77%
+3 moreNext deadline Apr 7, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?
PM $47.8KWill Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Yes 79%
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Yes 11.5%
Will KlingAI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Yes 5.5%
+14 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiPolitics
Who will release a new song this year?
K 51.2K contractsWill Tate McRae release a new song 2026?Yes 99.5%
Will Lil Nas X release a new song 2026?Yes 91.5%
Will The Marías release a new song 2026?Yes 84%
+27 moreNext deadline Jan 8, 2027 UTC
PolymarketTech
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?
PM $47.5KWill OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 84.5%
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 4.7%
Will Meta be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Yes 1.5%
+13 moreNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiCrypto
OpenRouter token usage in Oct 12–18
K 50.9K contractsWill OpenRouter token usage for Oct 12–18, 2026 be above 174T tokens?Yes 11%
Will OpenRouter token usage for Oct 12–18, 2026 be above 166T tokens?Yes 7.5%
Will OpenRouter token usage for Oct 12–18, 2026 be above 172T tokens?Yes 6%
+9 moreNext deadline Oct 26, 2026 UTC
PolymarketTech
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
PM $46.6KWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 55.5%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 26.5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 9.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC
KalshiTech
Amazon headcount in 2026
K 50.8K contractsWill Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1500000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?Yes 91.5%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1525000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?Yes 86.5%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. report above 1550000 Employees (full-time and part-time; excludes contractors & temporary personnel) in 2026?Yes 80.5%
+5 moreNext deadline Mar 31, 2028 UTC
PolymarketTech
GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?
PM $45.8KWill the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?Yes 90.5%
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on October 31, 2026?Yes 3.1%
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on October 31, 2026?Yes 1.8%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiTech
Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
PM $45.2K · K 3.8K contractsWill Anthropic launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
Kalshi: Will Anthropic release a personal AI agent before Jan 1, 2027?
Related contracts
PM Yes 27.5%Rules differK Yes 33.5%
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
1 saved comparisonNext deadline Nov 8, 2026 UTC
KalshiScience and Technology
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
K 50.1K contractsWhen will nuclear fusion be achieved? (Before 2040)Yes 51.4%
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? (Before 2035)Yes 47.6%
When will nuclear fusion be achieved? (Before 2030)Yes 30.3%
3 mktsNext deadline Jan 8, 2040 UTC